USDCHF surged after better than expected CPI data. This took the pair to a new 2022 high and the highest level since May 2010 (see daily chart below). Today’s high price took the price above the 2022 swing highs at 1.00493 and 1.00637 (from May and June 2022 respectively). Today’s high reached 1.0073 before reversing lower.
Drilling on the hourly chart below, the downward rotation accelerated after falling back below Tuesday’s trade swing hi at 1.00203. Momentum took the price back to the rising 100 hourly moving average (blue line in the chart below). This level currently sits at 0.99748. True to the last 3 days of trading, the price may have briefly dipped below the moving average level, but the momentum quickly faded and the price rallied back up. Current prices are trading at 0.9994.
Going forward, the 100-hour moving average will be the key short-term barometer. Stay on top and buyers always stay in control. Move below – and stay below – and we should see further selling momentum.
The downside targets would have traders looking into the swing zone defined by the swing highs on September 26-28 and then again on October 3-7, all between 0.99498 and 0.99647.
Below, the 38.2% retracement of the rise from the September 30 low at 0.99443 will be seen, followed by the 200 hourly moving average which currently sits at 0.9919 (and moving higher) . The price broke above the 200 hourly moving average and the 100 hourly moving average at the same level on October 6, near 0.9848, and has not traded below the level since that day.