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Pacers vs Warriors betting preview (January 20)

Pacers vs. Warriors Odds

Pacers Odds +11.5
Warriors ratings -11.5
More less 217
Time 10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Splash Brothers are back together again! Tonight will be Klay Thompson’s sixth return game. He hasn’t played more than 23 minutes in a game so far, but I’m sure his minutes will increase soon enough.

The last time these two teams met was on Dec. 12 in Indiana, where the Warriors rallied late to secure a 102-100 victory. The under knocked in this game and has for both teams throughout the season. Although this match was played a little over a month ago, the two teams look a little different now ahead of tonight.

Injuries have taken their toll on the Pacers and Warriors. Most of these injuries are also very important for each team. Even though the injuries are hard to see, they do present some value on this game’s total, so let’s dive into the game for both teams.

How will injuries affect the Pacers’ starting lineup?

The Indiana Pacers are in freefall having lost 10 of their last 12 games. They dropped to the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference with a 16-29 record. They are, however, coming off a win over the Los Angeles Lakers last night 111-104. It was obviously a much needed victory.

The Pacers are in the middle of their five-game West Coast road trip as they travel to Golden State. They are particularly bad on the road this season where they are 4-17. Somehow they were favored on the road four times. However, as road underdogs, the Pacers have actually covered the spread in nine of their 14 games. Under bets have hit in 11 of those 14 games.

Whenever there is a team that should be decent but have been very underwhelming, trade rumors start to swirl. The Pacers have a lot of good bits that have been discussed in the trades. The most frequent has been their center Myles Turner who is out tonight and will be out for the next four weeks.

The Pacers already have a poor defense that ranks 22nd in defensive ratings this season. In three games without Turner, their defensive rating went from 112.1 to 119.9 per game. There’s also a chance the Pacers will play without Malcolm Brogdon. He played last night for the first time since December 21. His status for this back-to-back is uncertain at this time.

Finally, Pacers leader Domantas Sabonis came off his fourth triple-double of the season last night where he finished with 20 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists. He’s had three triple-doubles in his last seven games! However, he injured his ankle in their game last night and it looks like he won’t be available tonight. Another huge loss for that Pacers frontcourt.

This game for the Pacers is a nightmare. The Warriors lead the league in defensive standings and have allowed a game-high 101.2 points per game. Their opponents are shooting just 42.8% from the field, which is just ridiculous. The Pacers have their work cut out for them on the offensive end of the field.

Will the Home Stand reignite another winning streak?

After a 1-3 road trip, the Golden State Warriors came home and absolutely outscored the Detroit Pistons 102-86. Tonight will be their second game of a seven-game home stand. Maybe the Warriors can get off to another great run as they have the league’s best home record at 19-3.

The most profitable bet on the Warriors this season has been on under bets. Their total games have been under 28 of their 44 games played. The second most profitable bet was the Warriors covering the spread. Especially as home favorites as they are tonight, the Warriors have covered in 15 of their 22 games. For reference, under bets also hit in 15 of those 22 games.

Klay Thompson is finally back! Thompson had his best shooting night since returning last game when he scored a team-high 21 points. Unfortunately, upon his return, the Warriors then lost Draymond Green to injury. Green’s injury has been significant so far. In the 10 games Green has missed this season, the Warriors are 4-6 while their offensive rating goes from 112.7 to 107.1 per game and their defensive rating goes from 101.9 to 107.7 per game. match.

Without Green in the roster, the Warriors will rely on rookie Jonathan Kuminga who has been fantastic when given playing time. He is coming off a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds in their last match where he played 25 minutes. He’s shown a ton of elite athletic ability and should be a solid player on this Warriors team going forward.

Perhaps even more important is Stephen Curry’s status. He left the last game with a hand injury, but the game was so out of reach that his comeback didn’t really matter. I imagine he will play tonight, but it is something to watch.

This game against the Pacers without Sabonis and Turner presents a fantastic spot for the Warriors. They probably won’t take advantage of their starting center Kevon Looney and they also have the second fewest practices this season as a team. However, they should be able to dominate the glass. The Warriors rank fifth this season in rebound percentage.

Pacers-Warriors pick

The Pacers rank 23rd in pace this season. They will struggle to score against the league’s best defense, especially with Turner and Sabonis out and Brogdon potentially unable to play as well. The Warriors are just too good defensively and will stifle the Pacers offense tonight.

The Warriors are the big 10-point favorites tonight. This line can swing depending on who is available to play for each side. I would lean towards Warriors coverage, but the bet that has cropped up throughout this article has been the least. This is where I’m going tonight. I would bet that up to 215 points.

Take: Less than 217